Cluster Hiring Initiative

Extreme Events in Climate (EEC)

Lightning accounts for approximately 80 percent of all wildfires, and strong, dry winds can affect their spread.

Calamities of nature—hurricanes, tornados, forest fires, tsunamis, red tides and the like—can cause loss of life, injuries, ecosystem disruptions and significant monetary losses. Evidence exists that such events may be increasing in frequency, duration and intensity with changes in the Earth's climate. The impact of extreme natural events could be reduced, however, with more timely and accurate warnings of these impending disasters.

Coordinating the skills of scientists from a number of different disciplines has led to improvements in understanding and predicting certain aspects of extreme events. Other aspects, though, are still poorly understood; these include hurricane intensity, storm surges, barrier-island and wetland destruction, toxic algae blooms, and numerous others.

While advances have been made in recent years in areas such as short-term hurricane forecasts, red tide modeling, and severe storm detection, much remains to be learned about how the natural variability of each is dependent on the general state of the climate -- since none of them occur in isolation. In addition, even less is known about how each of these short-lived events may impact back onto the global climate. Global climate models also need to be improved upon to provide significantly better assessments of the risk of extreme events, especially on a regional scale.

Understanding the variability of extreme events from region to region under differing climate scenarios is the focus of Extreme Events in Climate cluster. With additional faculty and enhanced interaction between disciplines, the simulations and models developed by this cluster are sure to improve the prediction accuracy and risk assessment of extreme climatic events.

Research in these areas remains a priority for the U.S. government, as evidenced by the substantial funding awarded for such study. The large-scale climate modeling planned by the Extreme Events in Climate cluster will further the understanding of oceanic and atmospheric events that can affect the health, safety and economic welfare of citizens of the United States and the world.

Faculty

Meteorology
Carol Anne Clayson, Robert Ellingson, Robert Hart, T.N. Krishnamurti, James O’Brien, Paul Reasor, Xiaolei Zou

Oceanography
Eric Chassignet, William Dewar, Philip Froehlich, Kevin Speer

Geological Sciences
Sergio Fagherazzi, Jennifer Georgen, Bill Hu, Yang Wang

Mathematics
Michael Navon